Monday, April 05, 2004
From Bad to Worse
Eight U.S. soldiers were killed in Iraq on Sunday, not by Ba'athists, but by Shi'ites. It was only a matter of time before the U.S. began having serious problems with the Shi'ites. After all, the U.S. won't let them vote, it is occupying their country, and it even denies them elementary freedom of speech rights by shutting down their newspapers. It will only get uglier and deadlier from here on out.
Of course this was all very predictable. The Israelis have extensive first hand experience in dealing with Shi'ites in Lebanon. Here is an a warning to the U.S. that was written in March 2003 predicting what would happen to the U.S in Iraq based on what happened to the Israelis in Lebanon. In part it reads:
Uri Avnery
22.3.03
Bitter Rice
Some thoughts about the war:
Beware of the Shiites. The troubles of the occupation will start after the fighting is over. Here is a personal story and its lessons:
On the fourth day of the 1982 Israeli attack on Lebanon, I crossed the border at a lonely spot near Metulla and looked for the front, which had already reached the outskirts of Sidon. I was driving my private car, accompanied by a woman photographer. We passed a dozen Shiite villages and were received everywhere with great joy. We extracted ourselves only with difficulty from hundreds of villagers, each one insisting that we have coffee at their home. On the previous days, they had showered the soldiers with rice.
A few months later I joined an army convoy going in the opposite direction, from Sidon to Metulla. The soldiers were now wearing bulletproof vests and helmets, many were on the verge of panic.
What had happened? The Shiites had received the Israeli soldiers as liberators. When they realized that they had come to stay as occupiers, they started to kill them.
When the Israeli troops entered Lebanon the Shiites were a down-trodden, powerless community, held in contempt by all the others. After a year of fighting the occupiers, they became a political and military power. The Shiite Hizbullah is the only military force in the Arab world that has beaten the mighty Israeli army.
Sharon is the real father of the Shiite force in Lebanon. Bush may well become the father of Shiite power in Iraq. The Shiites, 60% of the Iraqi population, have until now been down-trodden and powerless. When they realize that the Americans intend to stay, they will start a deadly guerilla campaign. Bush does not intend to leave Iraq, as Sharon did not intend to leave Lebanon.
Then what? America will claim that Iran, the Shiite neighbor, is behind the Shiite guerillas. In Iran there is a lot of oil. That's the next target.
The above quote has already been, in large part, proven correct. Unfortunately, over time it will probably be shown to be completely correct.
As an aside, to those with interest in the ongoing Israeli-Palistinian conflict I would highly recommend reading the web-site of the Israeli peace organization Gush-Shalom. It is very good and informative.
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Of course this was all very predictable. The Israelis have extensive first hand experience in dealing with Shi'ites in Lebanon. Here is an a warning to the U.S. that was written in March 2003 predicting what would happen to the U.S in Iraq based on what happened to the Israelis in Lebanon. In part it reads:
Uri Avnery
22.3.03
Bitter Rice
Some thoughts about the war:
Beware of the Shiites. The troubles of the occupation will start after the fighting is over. Here is a personal story and its lessons:
On the fourth day of the 1982 Israeli attack on Lebanon, I crossed the border at a lonely spot near Metulla and looked for the front, which had already reached the outskirts of Sidon. I was driving my private car, accompanied by a woman photographer. We passed a dozen Shiite villages and were received everywhere with great joy. We extracted ourselves only with difficulty from hundreds of villagers, each one insisting that we have coffee at their home. On the previous days, they had showered the soldiers with rice.
A few months later I joined an army convoy going in the opposite direction, from Sidon to Metulla. The soldiers were now wearing bulletproof vests and helmets, many were on the verge of panic.
What had happened? The Shiites had received the Israeli soldiers as liberators. When they realized that they had come to stay as occupiers, they started to kill them.
When the Israeli troops entered Lebanon the Shiites were a down-trodden, powerless community, held in contempt by all the others. After a year of fighting the occupiers, they became a political and military power. The Shiite Hizbullah is the only military force in the Arab world that has beaten the mighty Israeli army.
Sharon is the real father of the Shiite force in Lebanon. Bush may well become the father of Shiite power in Iraq. The Shiites, 60% of the Iraqi population, have until now been down-trodden and powerless. When they realize that the Americans intend to stay, they will start a deadly guerilla campaign. Bush does not intend to leave Iraq, as Sharon did not intend to leave Lebanon.
Then what? America will claim that Iran, the Shiite neighbor, is behind the Shiite guerillas. In Iran there is a lot of oil. That's the next target.
The above quote has already been, in large part, proven correct. Unfortunately, over time it will probably be shown to be completely correct.
As an aside, to those with interest in the ongoing Israeli-Palistinian conflict I would highly recommend reading the web-site of the Israeli peace organization Gush-Shalom. It is very good and informative.
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