Sunday, April 25, 2004

Why am I not surprised? 

According to a recent poll by the pro-opposition Venezuelan polling firm, Alfredo Keller & Associates, President Chavez would easily win any referendum vote. The resulst of the poll are as follows:

For Chavez 35%

Against Chavez 31%

Abstaining 34%

Please bear in mind that polling in Venezuela is a very inexact enterprise. Polls are conducted either on the street or in peoples homes making the samples not very random. Further, the poll takers often do not go into the poorer areas that are the base of Chavez's support. Worse still, all the leading poll firms in Venezuelan are highly partisan and anti-Chavez making their honesty in carrying out these polls highly suspect. Polls in Venezuela have traditionally underestimated Chavez's support by at least 10%.

So no wonder the opposition, in spite of its rhetoric, is doing all it can to avoid the referendum taking place. It would lose.


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