Tuesday, December 06, 2005
More legitimate than the U.S. Congress
Yesterday I wrote a post showing the voting rates in off-year U.S. congressional elections and showing how, at 37%, they were comparable to Venezuela´s recent election. But in thinking more about it I realized that in reality the average Venezuelan Assembly person got a higher percentage of his constituents to vote for him than did the average U.S. congressperson. Here is why:
In the U.S. congressional elections we saw 37% of the electorate on average votes whereas in the just concluded N.A. election there was a turn out of 25%. But there is a huge difference. Almost all U.S. congressional contests there are two parties contesting the vote and they split the votes. Lets assume that in the U.S. the average voting pattern in Congressional races is 60% for the winner to 40% for the loser. That means the winning candidate, on average, got 60% of the votes from the 37% of the electorate that bothered to vote giving the percentage of the electorate that voted for the winner as 22.2% (37% x 60%). By contrast, in the Venezuelan contest the pro-Chavez candidates got virtually 100% of the vote as the opposition pulled out. That means that the percentage of the electorate that voted for the winning candiate was 25% (100% x the 25% of the electorate that bothered to vote). So, the average member of the Venezuelan Assembly had a higher percentage of his consituants vote for him than did the average member of the U.S. congress elected in similiar elections (25% for the Venenezuelans versus 22.2% for the U.S.).
I think this should put to rest any notion that the Venezuelan National Assembly somehow lacks legitimacy (the again, maybe I´m really just showing that the U.S. congress is an illegitimate body).
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In the U.S. congressional elections we saw 37% of the electorate on average votes whereas in the just concluded N.A. election there was a turn out of 25%. But there is a huge difference. Almost all U.S. congressional contests there are two parties contesting the vote and they split the votes. Lets assume that in the U.S. the average voting pattern in Congressional races is 60% for the winner to 40% for the loser. That means the winning candidate, on average, got 60% of the votes from the 37% of the electorate that bothered to vote giving the percentage of the electorate that voted for the winner as 22.2% (37% x 60%). By contrast, in the Venezuelan contest the pro-Chavez candidates got virtually 100% of the vote as the opposition pulled out. That means that the percentage of the electorate that voted for the winning candiate was 25% (100% x the 25% of the electorate that bothered to vote). So, the average member of the Venezuelan Assembly had a higher percentage of his consituants vote for him than did the average member of the U.S. congress elected in similiar elections (25% for the Venenezuelans versus 22.2% for the U.S.).
I think this should put to rest any notion that the Venezuelan National Assembly somehow lacks legitimacy (the again, maybe I´m really just showing that the U.S. congress is an illegitimate body).
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