Friday, February 03, 2006

Polling update - UPDATED POST 

Its been a while since I've given any polling information in part because not much has been released. Today though some showed up in El Universal based on polling by the Datanalisis polling firm which is one of Venezuela's major polling firms and strongly opposition minded. And what does it show? Essentially, that in spite of all the non-sense about Chavez not having much support, or the seven years of his government being a failure, or that the opposition doesn't want to go to elections because they don't trust the electoral authorities the real deal is that Chavez is much more popular than his opponents and that average Venezuelans think he is doing a good job.

Lets look at some of the numbers. First, Venezuelans classify themselves as follows:

Chavistas 41.3%

Opposition 15.5%

Ni-Ni (neither) 35.9%

So Chavez has almost 3 times as much support as his opponents. Sure the opposition's problem is a biased C.N.E. - we really believe that!!

On the condition of the country:

Good 60.6%

Bad 36.2%

So if people vote just based on how they think the country is doing Chavez wins in a landslide.

And lastly, confidence in Chavez:

53% have faith in Chavez

39.7% don't have faith in Chavez

Even in this least favorable set of numbers Chavez still comes out quite well.

So, my opposition friends, keep blabbering about the electoral authorities, or the electoral registry, or the voting machines, or how crappy the international observers are. Remember, obfuscate, obfuscate, obfuscate. Whatever ever you do, don't let people get focused on the simple concept that the country is doing well, most Venezuelans think it is doing well, and that Chavez is simply FAR more popular than his opponents.


Today (Saturday) in Ultimas Noticias they gave some updated polling numbers on Chavez's tenure. Here they are:

58.8% of the population think the situation of the country has improved under Chavez's government.

19.1% think it has worsened

19.8 think it has stayed the same

47% of the population say their personal situation has improved in the last 7 years.

15.4% say their situation has worsened.

36.8% say it has remained the same.

On various questions of perception:

53% say the economy has improved in the past 7 years.

41.9% say unemployment has increased over the past 7 years.

40.8% say corruption is as bad as ever.

On Chavez's overall approval rating:

77.7% think he is doing a good or excellent job.

20.5% think he is doing a bad or terrible job.

On voting preferences Chavez vs. various candidates:

Chavez 64.2%
Julio Borges 21.5%

Chavez 64.8%
Manuel Rosales 18%

Chavez 67%
Teodoro Petkoff 12.7%


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