Monday, May 08, 2006

Rounding out the polls 

I'm sure all Oil Wars readers are well aware that every poll in the land shows Chavez with a commanding lead in the run up to the December presidential elections. So doing yet another post on poll numbers could be considered beating a dead horse. But I think it is worth making an exception in this case for one reason. There are in particular two very anti-Chavez and pro-opposition polling firms which consistently seem to show the LEAST favorable results for Chavez - Keller and Hinterlaces. The other day we saw that Keller had Chavez comfortably in the lead. Today we'll look at what Hinterlaces found in its March 2006 poll (hat tip to Vheadline).

Here are the numbers in response to the question "Who would you vote for in this year’s presidential election?

Hugo Chávez 38%

Julio Andrés Borges (PJ) 9%

Manuel Rosales 7%

Teodoro Petkoff 5%

Roberto Smith 1%

Undecided / Would not vote 40%

Certainly this isn't a good showing for the opposition. Even totalling everyone besides Chavez you come up with 38% supporting him against 22% supporting opposition candidates. If the undecided voters wind up voting in the same proportion Chavez would win with 63% of the vote (versus the 58% to 59% he has gotten in all his previous elections).

If this result holds, and with a booming economy, huge social programs, and numerous public works about to come on line it should, there is little doubt Chavez will win. And on a side note it looks like Mr. Teodoro "I can't pay my bills" Petkoff will lose any opposition primary as he is way behind Julio Borges.

So lest there be any doubt, even the most die hard opposition polling firms show Chavez winning easily. About the only question remaining is will the opposition be adult enough to accept their defeat or will they resort to their "fraud" or "we're not playing" routines. Given their continueing inability to mature I suspect the latter.


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