Sunday, June 18, 2006
Oil numbers yet again
Ok, I know I've probably put more than a few people to sleep on this blog with all the rather pedantic discussion of what is going on with the Venezuelan oil industry (for those who missed it please read here and here). But I thought this article from Forbes was right on the money:
I particularly liked "crude oil production numbers became highly politicized in late 2002 during the strike at state oil company PDVSA" and "the judgment of what to include or exclude in any stated total production number may be driven by the politics of the communicator in question." Boy, did they ever get THAT right.
Anyways, its good to see the PDVSA numbers vindicated by yet another outside agency, this time British Petroleum.
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A number of factors contribute to the high degree of uncertainty about the Venezuelan oil industry:
1. Oil production. Oil has always been a highly political subject. Recent history explains why the Venezuelan picture is especially complicated. Crude oil production numbers became highly politicized in late 2002 during the strike at state oil company PDVSA. This debate continues, with antagonists bringing to the table a confusing range of numbers:
--Although current production levels are uncertain, according to the BP Statistical Review, the figure for 2005 was just over 3 million barrels per day (b/d). Assuming just below 600,000 b/d of synthetic crude, this suggests production of 2.4 million b/d of conventional oil by PDVSA and foreign oil companies.
--Other views indicate that total crude production is 2.6 million b/d, of which PDVSA produces 1.3 million and foreign-operated fields another 1.3 million.
These two sets of numbers are difficult to reconcile. In any case, the judgment of what to include or exclude in any stated total production number may be driven by the politics of the communicator in question.
I particularly liked "crude oil production numbers became highly politicized in late 2002 during the strike at state oil company PDVSA" and "the judgment of what to include or exclude in any stated total production number may be driven by the politics of the communicator in question." Boy, did they ever get THAT right.
Anyways, its good to see the PDVSA numbers vindicated by yet another outside agency, this time British Petroleum.
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