Thursday, September 21, 2006
Someone would seem to be BSing the polls
Ok, I know I promised not to post on polls anymore but given that a little poll war has broken out I think I should throw this up on the blog for public consumption.
In the past week an American polling firm, Penn & Schoen, came out with a poll purporting to show that Rosales was within 15% of Chavez. The problem is, that same polling firm was involved in some very contraversial exit polls during the Referendum on Chavez two years ago that turned out to almost certainly not be true.
Then a Venezuelan polling firm, Hinterlaces, came out with a poll showing Chavez declining below 50% and Rosales in the 30% range. That seemed plausible but odd given that other recent polls have shown Chavez with a huge lead and Rosales never even cracking 20%. One of those polls was by the large Venezuelan polling firm Datos. Today they came out with an even more recent poll showing that not only had Chavez not declined in support but he actually increased his support ever so slightly while Rosales continues to trail very badly. So something does appear to be afoot here.
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In the past week an American polling firm, Penn & Schoen, came out with a poll purporting to show that Rosales was within 15% of Chavez. The problem is, that same polling firm was involved in some very contraversial exit polls during the Referendum on Chavez two years ago that turned out to almost certainly not be true.
Then a Venezuelan polling firm, Hinterlaces, came out with a poll showing Chavez declining below 50% and Rosales in the 30% range. That seemed plausible but odd given that other recent polls have shown Chavez with a huge lead and Rosales never even cracking 20%. One of those polls was by the large Venezuelan polling firm Datos. Today they came out with an even more recent poll showing that not only had Chavez not declined in support but he actually increased his support ever so slightly while Rosales continues to trail very badly. So something does appear to be afoot here.
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